ATF-41P Delayed

For those of you who were following the proposed ATF rule on how trusts buy firearms, you’ll remember that June was the month we expected an update. That update actually came late last month.

What was it? Merely a postponement of any action until January of 2015. (See here.) All is normal for the remainder of the year, or so we are told.

The reason for this is likely two fold. The reason the ATF shares is that they are inundated with comments and do not have the man power to respond to all of them in their originally planned time frame. The other reason, and the one I believe likely has more to do with the delay, 2014 midterm elections.

As a rule of thumb, and be careful with rules of thumb, midterm elections are usually marked by better Republican turn out than Democrat turn out. Another rule of thumb, Republicans tend to be pro-gun, and many are single issue votes. Handing the NRA, GOA, NAGR, GOP, Tea Party, and countless other groups an “anti-gun” decision by the administration less than six months before the elections would not help Democrats.

Regardless of your opinion on the current president, he is extremely adapt and successful at campaigning. He understands the process and knows how to win. He also knows how to lose. And an anti-gun rule would help lose the upcoming election. He’s not willing to do that with such a small gain to be had. (The story might be different if he had found a way to stop the sale of semi-automatic rifles. But he didn’t.)

With that in mind, I don’t expect any action until after November 2014. Until then, enjoy buying with ease.